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The observed warming over the last decade compared to 1850-1900 was 1.1°C. Due to well-mixed greenhouse gases (CO2, methane, etc.) the Earth would have warmed 1.5°C. Due to "other human drivers" (mostly air pollution) the Earth cooled by 0.4°C over this period. Natural drivers (sun, volcanoes, etc.) and internal variability (oceans, vegetation, etc.) had on average no influence over this long period.

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https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/000/176/918/original/d03a4f50db745711.png

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  1. Victor Venema (victorvenema@fediscience.org)'s status on Tuesday, 10-Aug-2021 16:48:48 CEST Victor Venema Victor Venema

    On the birdsite Erich Fischer highlights an important graph from the new #IPCC report.

    "Warming entirely man-made

    Human influence not only contributed to warming since 1850-1900 but caused *all* of it, according to the best quantitative estimate. The warming would have been even stronger, had it not been partly cancelled by the cooling aerosol emissions."

    * The aerosol cooling is also a human influence and mostly the same one: burning fossil fuels.

    #ClimateChange #AttributionScience

    In conversation Tuesday, 10-Aug-2021 16:48:48 CEST from fediscience.org permalink
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