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Temperature reconstruction over the last 24,000 years. The 8000 years before the industrial age the temperature was quite constant. We only look at changes in time and this period has a temperature "anomaly" of about zero. An anomaly is a deviation from a default state. Before that (the period of 18,000 to 8,000 years present) you see about 10,000 years with 8°C of warming as the Earth is coming out of an ice age. The earliest period (24,000 to 17,000 years old) the temperature anomaly declines from -6 to -8°C. Since the start of the industrial age, the Earth has warmed about 1°C. The (no longer likely) high emissions scenario warms another 6°C in 2100. The low emissions scenario warms a bit more than one degree Celsius more. On this scale with a temperature anomaly of -8°C to over 6°C the slight warming over the 8000 years before the industrial period looks mostly flat. So we see a really straight hock stick handle and then a steep rise. This graph looks even more like a hockey stick than the previous graphs called a hockey stick.

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https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/000/239/574/original/ebbc7742a058f0f7.png

Notices where this attachment appears

  1. Victor Venema (victorvenema@fediscience.org)'s status on Thursday, 11-Nov-2021 14:42:12 CET Victor Venema Victor Venema

    Scientists extend and straighten iconic climate “hockey stick”
    https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/11/scientists-extend-and-straighten-iconic-climate-hockey-stick/

    The figure below shows the new temperature reconstruction for the past 24,000 years together with the instrumentally observed warming and climate scenarios up to 2100.*

    In earlier reconstructions the temperature before the industrial period went down slightly. In this new work it goes up 0.5°C over 8000 years before the industrial period.

    * The "high emissions" scenario is nowadays quite unlikely.

    In conversation Thursday, 11-Nov-2021 14:42:12 CET from fediscience.org permalink
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