Many people today claim we will cross the 1.5 degree warming limit in five years. This is not true.

This is due to a press release of the WMO making this claim:

50:50 chance of global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5°C threshold in next five years https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-update-5050-chance-of-global-temperature-temporarily-reaching-15%C2%B0c-threshold

This is not the same.

The global warming shows a lot of year to year variability. The claim is if you role this dice five times you will cross the 1.5°C *level* once. But the 1.5°C *limit* is for the long-term warming.