Notices where this attachment appears

1. Victor Venema (victorvenema@fediscience.org)'s status on Tuesday, 10-May-2022 20:23:05 CEST Victor Venema

   Many people today claim we will cross the 1.5 degree warming limit in five years. This is not true.

   This is due to a press release of the WMO making this claim:

   50:50 chance of global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5°C threshold in next five years https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-update-5050-chance-of-global-temperature-temporarily-reaching-15%C2%B0c-threshold

   This is not the same.

   The global warming shows a lot of year to year variability. The claim is if you role this dice five times you will cross the 1.5°C *level* once. But the 1.5°C *limit* is for the long-term warming.