Many people today claim we will cross the 1.5 degree warming limit in five years. This is not true.

This is due to a press release of the WMO making this claim:

50:50 chance of global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5°C threshold in next five years https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-update-5050-chance-of-global-temperature-temporarily-reaching-15%C2%B0c-threshold

This is not the same.

The global warming shows a lot of year to year variability. The claim is if you role this dice five times you will cross the 1.5°C *level* once. But the 1.5°C *limit* is for the long-term warming.

#Live right now.

A live "Climate Change Chat" with astrophysicist, Dr. Ken Rice.

Rice will talk about physics and his experiences running his #ClimateChange blog "...and Then There's Physics."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OA7RoklE2Fo
https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=OA7RoklE2Fo

Scientists extend and straighten iconic climate “hockey stick”
https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/11/scientists-extend-and-straighten-iconic-climate-hockey-stick/

The figure below shows the new temperature reconstruction for the past 24,000 years together with the instrumentally observed warming and climate scenarios up to 2100.*

In earlier reconstructions the temperature before the industrial period went down slightly. In this new work it goes up 0.5°C over 8000 years before the industrial period.

* The "high emissions" scenario is nowadays quite unlikely.

Ed Hawkins (Climatologist at the University of Exeter, UK): What would I say to #COP26?
http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2021/what-would-i-say-to-cop26/

The article is basically a short readable summary of the recent #IPCC report. I mostly post it for the beautiful image illustrating what the choices made at COP26 mean for the future global temperature.

The German news showed a stunning satellite photo of La Palma.

Around #LaPalma you can see multiple circles in the cloud field. It looks like the wave you get when a stone in dropped into a pond.

In this case the stone is not falling from above, but the #volcano spewing hot air does it from below.

The definitive CO2/CH4 comparison post https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2021/09/the-definitive-co2-ch4-comparison-post/

Ahead of the Glasgow climate summit Biden and EPA emphasis reducing atmospheric methane. Leading to many bad comparisons between CO2 and methane in the press. This post gives the most relevant science needed for an honest comparison. 1/2

As some may know, I work on historical climate data. Quite often we have to hide the work we do in bigger proposals that solve some practical problems. (I also got funding from general programs.)

So I am really happy that Belgium has a program where the aim is to get the foundation right, rather than to produce something that can be published in Nature.

Only Belgian federal institutions can apply, but I am posting hoping more countries will follow.

https://www.belspo.be/belspo/brain2-be/call_open_en.stm

@ashwinvis I have mostly given up. Our library sends emails with new articles in the main journals. But it is just too much.

When I start a new study I search the literature. And you hear a lot on conferences and (in the past) on Twitter.

The search terms for my field are terrible "temperature", "homogenization", terms used in all sciences. But tools using a publication list and citations look nice. I should probably start using one, sacrifice my data to Google. Or shall we code our own? 😎

@M Is the Bot FOSS and automatic/scalable? Could one make a Fediverse Service with feeds for any field of science?

@ashwinvis

@pybonacci Yes, I had assumed people had tried Pull Requests and failed and thus came up with this solution. But maybe I was jumping to conclusions.

I did just open an issue to make it possible that only the poster sees the red border and no one else. It is intended as friendly feedback, not as publish shaming.https://github.com/mastodon/mastodon/issues/16640

For now we solved that by making the border relatively subtle, but a bright red would give a clearer feedback.@tfardet

Our friend @tfardet made a good suggestion to make #FediScience more accessible.

It is easy to forget putting a description on an image, gif or video. So we added some markup code (CSS) to our homepage/instance that puts a red border around images without description.

This border will only be visible to people on the FediScience homepage, not on apps and not on other instances.

Admins wanting to do the same can find example CSS code here: https://gist.github.com/FiXato/3de505b04efefd49a1e3568b70545234

@cryospheroid But even worse than convection parameterizations are people who think it helps to make the resolution a bit higher (but still not resolving turbulence) and just turn it off.

cough COSMO cough

Arctic snowfall remote sensing! Every generation the problems get tougher. That is white on white crime.

@cryospheroid Even with perfect cloud microphysics and perfect dynamics, I would not expect precipitation forecasts to be particularly accurate more than a day in advance. Especially convective precip.

Hi, I am Victor. Nowadays I work on the accuracy of climate trends, but as a PhD student I worked on measuring clouds and as postdoc on radiative transfer through clouds. How do you do? Nice to see such a close colleague here.

#Wikimania

Wikipedia now has a more advanced citing system than science.

You can cite articles in #Wikipedia by giving their ID in #Wikidata. Then if an article is retracted this will become visible on all Wiki pages that cite the article. 🤗

Femke Nijsse: "On Monday the #IPCC released their assessment ... This ends years of hard (volunteer!) work for hundreds of scientists.

It starts a journey of updating hundreds or thousands of #Wikipedia articles, which will equally take years

I would like to invite researchers, especially early-career researchers that are doing a literature review, to join us at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:WikiProject_Climate_change

What better way to get an in-depth understanding of a new topic than write about it to a lay audience?"

On the birdsite Erich Fischer highlights an important graph from the new #IPCC report.

"Warming entirely man-made

Human influence not only contributed to warming since 1850-1900 but caused *all* of it, according to the best quantitative estimate. The warming would have been even stronger, had it not been partly cancelled by the cooling aerosol emissions."

* The aerosol cooling is also a human influence and mostly the same one: burning fossil fuels.

#ClimateChange #AttributionScience

"BREAKING" NEWS

I was wrong, the #IPCC AR6 WGI summary for policy makers has been approved yesterday. Two days earlier than I had expected.

IPCC: "#IPCC’s next #ClimateReport is due to be released on 9 August. The Working Group I report was prepared by a diverse team of 234 authors from all over the world.

🗺️ 66 countries📚 31% new to the IPCC"

As a lowly contributing author I am apparently not counted as (new) author here, otherwise they would mention much more. It is a massive work.

Officially tomorrow the negotiations on the next IPCC report on the scientific basis of climate change will come to an end.

My colleague Prof Peter Thorne knows how it normally ends and tweeted out this picture. (The press conference is Monday, I do not think they have ever finished early.)

The IPCC report is written by scientists, but the Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) is negotiated with governments.

This is a weird mixture of science and politics, but it avoids politicians rambling about climate science during negotiations on global climate policies as you often see on the internet when people are unwilling to acknowledge the consequences of their policy preferences and start attacking science. 2/2

Today the negotiations on the final version of the IPCC report on the physical science basis of climate change have started. https://enb.iisd.org/climate/IPCC/IPCC-54-WGI-14

They are online and are planned to take two weeks. They will likely take two weeks and a weekend. The press conference announcing the report is planned for Monday. 1/2